Can Huawei/HarmonyOS endanger Microsoft and Apple? (November 2024)
Some reflections on appearance of HarmonyOS NEXT.
Abstract: A rare non-USA made major Operating System Huawei/HarmonyOS looks like a serious threat to USA software empires Microsoft an Apple.
1 Forget hardware, money is in software
For months we are bombed with news ([7],[8]) like “Huawei can’t make good even 7 nanometer chips, while Apple excels in 3 nanometer technology”. But that is misleading a bit, famous story tells us that Bil Gates hasn’t made his Microsoft empire on hardware, which he outsourced to IBM but on software. Microsoft software business is today much bigger than IBM hardware+software business has ever been.
We are witnessing a birth of a major Operating System that rarely is not USA made. HarmonyOS NEXT ([5]) is claimed to be already is world’s 3rd mobile OS, with one billion devices installation. While today mostly present on China market, it might soon propagate to other markets, starting with “global south” countries. If they gain huge base of users, money will follow sooner or later.
HarmonyOS family also claims as a target platform PC hardware, currently under name “HarmonyOS PC” ([9],[10]). Development is ongoing, and target release date is Q3 2025. Even if only used/established inside China on government PCs, that would be a serious blow to MS Windows and Apple macOS dominance. And blow to their millions of money income.
2 Know-how and Engineering workforce
In contrast to hardware chip technology, software OS technology tools and know-how are widely available, starting with publicly available Open Source of Android OS. So, know-how is there. Also, China has a numerous qualified engineering workforce (see [12], 4 times the USA), so Huawei will find enough engineers, at affordable cost, for the development of the new OS. So, given enough time and money, Huawei will probably succeed in their HarmonyOS project.
3 Marketing or reality?
There are reports that not is going smooth with HarmonyOS. Article [6] is saying that even migration of China’s own WeChat app to HarmonyOS is not going well. In a way, that is expected. Development of a stable OS is a major undertaking. Even Steve Jobs was faking ([13]) his presentation of iPhone in early phases of development. It took time and engineering effort to Apple to smooth it all over time. Same holds for Huawei, if they persist with project and get enough talented engineers, HarmonyOS will work well at the end.
4 References
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HarmonyOS
HarmonyOS
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HarmonyOS_NEXT
HarmonyOS NEXT
[3] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202410/1321670.shtml
China's first fully home-grown mobile operating system HarmonyOS NEXT launched
[4] https://www.huaweicentral.com/category/harmonyos/harmonyos-next/
[5] https://technode.com/2024/10/23/harmonyos-next-becomes-the-worlds-third-major-mobile-os-joining-android-and-ios/
HarmonyOS NEXT becomes the world’s third major mobile OS, joining Android and iOS
[6] https://thebambooworks.com/huaweis-harmonyos-next-faces-major-test-with-wechat-will-it-pass/
Huawei’s HarmonyOS NEXT faces major test with WeChat: Will it pass?
[7] https://www.asiafinancial.com/huaweis-china-made-7nm-chip-years-behind-us-raimondo-says
Huawei’s China-Made 7nm Chip ‘Years Behind US’, Raimondo Says
[8] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/10/in-huaweis-battle-against-apple-chips-are-still-a-weakness-analyst-.html
In Huawei’s battle against Apple, chips are still a weakness, says analyst
[9] https://www.huaweicentral.com/next-gen-huawei-pcs-will-ditch-windows-for-harmonyos-chairman/
HuaweiNext-gen Huawei PCs will ditch Windows for HarmonyOS: Chairman
[10] https://www.huaweicentral.com/huawei-harmonyos-pc-rumored-to-delay-till-q3-2025/
Huawei HarmonyOS PC rumored to delay till Q3 2025
[11] https://www.huaweicentral.com/harmonyos-pc-ui-design-allegedly-surfaced-on-huawei-developer-website/
HarmonyOS PC UI design allegedly surfaced on Huawei Developer website
[12] https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-global-distribution-of-stem-graduates-which-countries-lead-the-way/
The Global Distribution of STEM Graduates: Which Countries Lead the Way?
[13] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/01/how-steve-jobs-faked-his-way-through-unveiling-the-iphone.html
How Steve Jobs Faked His Way Through Unveiling the iPhone